RSS Feed
EDIT: I have been re-evaluating my statement after examining more recent polling data.
I now believe a Labor minority government is more likely. We are currently sitting on 72 seats. Wilkie and Brandt will side with Labor, putting us on 74. Oakeshott is a progressive and will likely also side with Labor (75). He has also said as recently as last night that “The independents won’t necessarily side with the party that has the most seats or votes in the lower house, rather they would look at who could best deliver stable government “taking into consideration the make-up of the Senate”. Seeing as the Senate will dominated by Labor and the Greens, I think we’re going to see a very interesting political arrangement.
Hopefully either Tony Windsor or Bob Katter will find the strength to support Labor in this case. If, however, we lose another seat in postal counts things will get far more complicated. Nevertheless, at this stage, we’re looking good. Maintain the rage!
It is now clear that media bias in this country is out of control. Our once independent ABC has a board, still stacked with conservatives from the Howard era. Most are up for reappointment next year. If Abbott is in control the same bias will remain or get even worse. We MUST join together to form a powerful progressive voice in this nation. We cannot rely on mainstream media to keep us informed. Let us join together as Progress Australians Against Tony Abbott!
Posted earlier:
There is a lot of sadness here, to be sure.
I project that Labor will end up with something between 71-73 seats. If we manage to pull off 73 seats then we should be able to form a minority government with Adam Bandt (Green from Melbourne), Andrew Wilkie (Independent but former Green from Dickson), and one of the three rural independents.
However, we are currently behind in Brisbane, and Lindsay and Corangamite are very tight. We must win all 3 for the above scenario to be a possibility. Thus, I put our chances of success at something like 25%. It’s not looking good people.
The current electoral reality aside, I think there is one thing that needs to be addressed, and that is the status of “our” ABC. In my 30 years I have never seen our beloved broadcaster act in such a partisan fashion.
There have traditionally been two powerful media interests in this country which set the agenda each day – News Limited, and the ABC. The ABC is a media behemoth, with a radio, tv, and online presence. It has completely and utterly failed to inform the public, as was once its role. I am certain that the ABC, in its heyday, would have spent great time pulling apart all of the intricacies of policy on both sides of the house in an objective manner.
Instead, we saw Murdoch talking points repeated ad-lib day after day after day.
The greatest tragedy about Gillard’s loss is that she will not get to make the new board appointments that are due next year. Thus we will find ourselves in an extremely difficult situation electorally.
This spells great trouble for our democracy.
I’m ridiculously tired, but I believe that we need to build an online “progressive army”, which can collectively act in the lead-up to election campaigns to influence the media narrative. I’m talking about an online organisation which can act at a local grassroots level as well as collectively online through new media to reach large numbers of people. Talkback radio, letter-writing, documenting systemic bias at our public broadcaster, documenting systemic bias elsewhere in the mainstream media.
One project which I think could be extremely powerful would be a documentary like Out-foxed (which covers News Limited’s influence in the USA)
I feel that there is a wonderful story to be told about what has happened in this country. A sad story to be sure, but framed the right way, with appropriate supporting evidence, it could truly show people what many of us already know to be true; that big business interests have successfully destroyed a Prime Minister, and corrupted our democracy.
That is not to say the Labor party is blameless. It certainly is not. They are prone to panic, however. And perhaps with good reason. I’m sure they haven’t forgotten their time in the electoral wilderness for 11 years thanks to Howard. The thought of a repeat of that was probably unfathomable to some. So they did what they felt was right according to the predominant narrative. They executed their leader and installed the popular deputy. The powerful forces of industry set a trap, and they fell for it. Arbib and Bitar and Shorten and whoever else was involved are not evil men, or even power-hungry men. They were scared. They panicked. Many of us were also scared. Don’t forget the extensive hit-job the media relentlessly pursued against Rudd’s character. We started to doubt the man that he was. The focus on his temper. The stories about his insane workload, the silent treatment he would give his staffers.
I have no doubt, no doubt at all, that Murdoch has become a master manipulator in political affairs around the world. I think he sees Australia as his test bed for new ideas. His plaything, if you will. The media is so concentrated here that public opinion is much easier to sway. The USA is a different beast. I’m certain that he has an entire division dedicated to fine-tuning public opinion, shifting views, indeed manufacturing consent. He is the modern day Machiavelli and thus one of the most powerful men in the world.
The progressive left, all of us, need to recognise this. We need to work together to overcome the incredible odds that we are fighting against. Indeed, I find it amazing that despite the immense level of one-sided reporting throughout this campaign that Labor still managed to poll above 50% on a TPP basis and may yet still form minority government (although doubtful). This tells me that all is not lost for our great country. We are a well-educated nation; far more so than the bulk of our unfortunate friends on the other side of the Atlantic.
My friends, I propose we form this progressive army. I feel that Abbott can be a unifying force for those of us who oppose him. He is an extremely polarising character, and a very dangerous at that. The facebook group “friends don’t let friends vote for tony abbott” is a testament to this at over 100,000 users. That, in itself, is an asset. Facebook is one example of the sort of media we can use to organise collectively and influence public opinion.
I put together an article “10 reasons not to vote for tony abbott” the day before the election. Simply through Facebook, Twitter, and sending around a few emails I was able to get over 8,000 people to read the damn thing. Now imagine if I was a little more organised. Imagine if there were a thousand of us or even ten thousand of us. How many people could we reach? How much media tripe could we cut through?
I’m extremely tired, angry, upset, and rather ranty. But my point stands. We must stand up and fight for our intellectual freedom and for our country. This is a cultural war for the hearts and minds of our fellow countrymen and women. We cannot surrender to small-minded bigotry and greed. Let us fight the good fight.
Please join the facebook group, invite others to join, and let’s build something together!
i think the result will help the necessary surgery within the ALP to excise the unelected NSW Right. That’s the best of it.
Arbib and Bitar and Shorten really do need to be excised. The worst decision at the worst time with their perfect candidate failing at the first post in an election timed by herself. One cannot hope for a progressive democratic socialist group to form around such abject and fearful failure and disloyalty. The great achievement? The removal of decent social and tax policy from the ALP’s agenda.
And with a little luck do the same to the coalition.
If Labor do form a minority government with the support of the Green (also Labor really) and a couple of independents, it will be an indictment of how corrupt the political system really is. And I don’t mean the people running the system are corrupt but the system itself where deals are done so that when people vote away from a particular party they can still end up with them anyway. The truth is that the people have spoken and in the majority of cases, said “out damned spot” to Labor in no uncertain terms. People , good hard working voters have said we’ve had enough and we want change, the fact that second , third , and fourth preferences ultimately count as a full vote in our process as candidates are exhausted from the bottom up can put the non preferred candidate ahead of the one with the most voted when the margin is over 10% between them. The Fact that deals can be done to secure seats by way of preferences for the senate is another shameful travesty and a real time glitch in our system because when there are 60 candidates the major parties and the wannabe’s like the Greens can get senators into seats knowing that many people do not really understand the system and will opt for the vote above the line rather than selecting between one and sixty and putting them into an order of their preference, thus the Labor and Liberal voters who do so also control by non participation who gets senate seats and that will be the two major parties Labor/greens or Liberal/Nationals.
No matter which side gets into bed with the independents (because lets face it greens are never going to not be with Labor anyway) it will be in all probability a short lived union and will result in us all having to go back to the ballot box early just like this time.
Both LNP and Labor /Greens should be ashamed of how they’ve played the game this time, because it was only about winning and nothing about what’s best for the people of Australia.
Yes, let’s stand up, stand together, and take on the forces of darkness. We will oppose them, hold them to account, criticise them, mock them – while championing a progressive, ethical agenda that will leave the troglodytes dragging their knuckles around in the dust.
I agree that we’ll be back at the ballot box probalbly within 12 months. If we end up with a minority coalition government with basically a Liberal controlled senate until July next year that will be an unmitigating disaster for the country.
As to how corrupt the system is how do you explain a Liberal government in 1998 with 48.5% of the 2pp.
Agree, so do Tripodi and Obied from NSW, I’d add Howse as well.
I don’t see how either Katter or Windsor can side with the Labor party when neither electorate voted for Labor in any real number, I am sure their supporters would be furious for not representing their vote, which was in no way a vote for federal Labor
Brave words but as the electorate has shown with this boggling display of abject bloody mindedness, it’s your prescription, Rx, that will be mocked. The troglodyte knuckle draggers won’t want to know. They like it this way.
Those of us that can remember the long dull empty summer afternoon of the Menzies years, repeated for us like a strangely disconcerting bad TV rerun by Little Johnny Small, The Turd Long Boy, know that the natural state of the Australian polity is one of idiot smug self satisfaction wrapped in the warming cloak of a conformity forcing racism. Real Australians don’t like smart arses and know it alls, they do like being told what to think, how to think, what to do and how to do it by the big end of town and the those arbiters of all matters existential, the Murdoch press; and the height of our culture is a few beers and an afternoon at the races, oh, and bugger the abos, when we think about them at all.
What happened yesterday isn’t an aberration, it’s a return to normal settings. I’m somewhat surprised that it only went as far as it did. But the gods must be chuckling today. You might have thought that having Abbott as PM was going to be embarrassing enough, rather like that embarrassing cousin who always manages to say the wrong thing at precisely the wrong moment, but Bob Katter will be the man setting the policy controls and we all know that there’ a whole lotta bull under that hat! Could we be more relaxed and comfortable? Apparently not.
I’ll be shaking my head in disbelief until the whole thing collapses and we troupe off to the polls again in, whaddayareckon, twelve, eighteen months. In the meantime, the planet is still burning, dysfunctional markets are still collapsing and the aboriginal children are still dying of preventable diseases. It’s business as usual here in the merry old land of OZ!
But knock yourself out Rx. If you can wring any meaningful change you’ll be a true progressive hero.
Well, that’s exactly my point, the Libs should not have won that government, the system that we have allowed that scenario of majority seat government by a minority of voters. To be honest that’s one of the reasons I’m against a Republic, they system is going to be the same, it’s not a true reflection of what voters really want. As I said it’s not really people in the system or either side of politics here that’s actually corrupt, it’s the actual system by which voted are counted.
Ok, imagine if we only had number one and two leave all the others blank, and vote one was worth one vote and vote two was worth half a vote, over the years we’d see a huge difference in the make up of governments and it would stop the insidious deal making behind the scenes.
I guess the system has been around for a while now and we’ve become used to it, but could we make improvements so that our votes reflected public opinion better? yeah I think we could , absolutely.
Yep, agreed, quite a conundrum for them isn’t it considering why they are now independents isn’t it.
Hear, fuckin’ hear !
Man oh man, what a total cock-up. But next March we will be able to smash the NSW Labor Right – and all we have to put up with is Fatty O’Barrell and incompetence – as opposed to incompetence AND frank corruption. Lovely.
Time to move to Melbourne (OMG)
I’ve let my Fairfax sub expire. I never ever read Murdoch or watch commercial or cable TV and now it’s time to turn off the ABC for good until they throw out the current board).
So it’s up to you, JJ, and it’s Crikey and the Pig’s Arms for me.
I agree and concur.
Just frightening isn’t Emm, incompetence begets incompetence. We’ve probably got a decade of this in NSW.
The Daily Bludge has been this election’s saving grace. Fully support building up the network … whatever ends up happening this election this needs to start being built up now! Happy resting and thank you for reminding us that we are an intelligent, caring bunch of people who will influence our country!
Spot on Algy. Nobody voted for any of these creeps did they ?
I’m not sure we’ll be back at the polls so soon. I picture a Labor minority government only tipped up by some ace bastardry from the Coalition. The independents are going to milk this for all it’s worth for as long as it goes. If the Liberals upset tha apple cart too soon, it gives the electorate the shits and they will punish Abbott for that – provided that the Labor party kills off Bitar, Tripodi, Obeid, Shorten and Howes.
Did I get this right ? The Canberra mob put in a local Liberal ? How whacko is voting for a party avowed to slash the public service in the home of public service ?
I seriously doubt that I’m grasping this result – unless that arsehat Milne is right – that the electorate is saying that we are no longer OK with a two party, ludicrously adversarial system. We want co-operation and problem solving and no more bullshit abuse.
Curious
I wonder if the obligatory wearing of tick collars for our political leaders would be helpful?
The parasitical tick seems to have spread throughout all the chambers, with both upper and lower houses all infected.
In the meantime they could just all sway backwards and forwards in front of the flat screen and fiddle with Wii.
As we don’t have an alternate universe to run the experiment, you don’t know what the ALP result in those seats would have been if the Independents weren’t standing. By definition the ALP vote would be different if the Independents weren’t running. Using your own argument Helena, the Coalition vote in the seats was even lower than the ALP vote – so Latter & Windsor can’t assist Abbott over the line either.
Katter & Windsor should side for whoever they believe will give the electors in their seat the best outcome. That is really what politics is about. In the past I’ve had no time for Katter (and had never heard anything from either Windsor or Oakschott) – in the last few days all of them have impressed.
It’s not the Red and Blue Tribes on Survivor Island anymore – it is building a common ground to ensure Australia survives the next recession as well as it did the last one, that we have the infrastructure and training skills to ensure that we can maintain our place in the world, that we leave the world better off environmentally than we found it for our kids and to provide the social help to those that need it for all comers regardless of their residency (or means of arrival).
JJ – your “Outfoxed” idea is good however you need to ensure it doesn’t become a place for the rabid right party hacks to threaten and vent, like other avenues have done in the past.
The “necessary surgery within the ALP” will be happening behind ALP closed doors soon if the bookies are anything to go by.
$2.70. Bill Shorten
$4.10 Julia Gillard
Third time lucky? Who knows, it certainly worked spectacularly well for the Libs when they picked action man Abbott.